Indo-Russian Relations (2000-2005)
Maria Myutel
Maria Myutel is from Mosco, Russia. She holds Bachelor of Philosophy, Master of Philosophy & Master of Political Science
The latest visit of Russian president Vladimir Putin to India once more showed the importance of Indo-Russia relations. Both countries see each other as strategic partners describing their relations in recent years as the ones "based on the national consensus in favour of friendship and cooperation, and the convergence of vital national interests".
Such perception from both sides is especially important as only a decade ago the relations were far from strategic. Collapse of Soviet Union led to complete transformation of the international system and challenged each country to rebuild its foreign policy. "While Russia has been "collecting itself" for the past decade, India had to craft an entirely new strategic framework with little confidence regarding Russian reliability or role vis-a-vis the subcontinent".1
First decade after the end of Cold War - so-called Yeltsin-Kozyrev period - lasted till 1996 and was characterized by Russia turning to the West. Yeltsin's visit to India (after postponing the meeting several times) in 1993 when the support for several very important issues like Kashmir, permanent UN Security Council set, no military-technological assistance to Pakistan, prolonged arms trade and mechanism for repayment of debt was shown didn't strengthen much the relations as right after several months Russia being under US pressure knuckled down in Cryogenic engines deal. It proved that India remained Russia’s only second priority after western countries and "near abroad" (former soviet republics).
Still during exchanges of official visits of the state leaders (Yeltsin - in 1993, N.Rao - in 1994) paid in few years after Soviet Union collapsed some important agreements were signed as they provided the base for further restoration of relations. In 1993 India and Russia signed a Twenty Year Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation on the model of earlier Indo-Soviet treaty. One important difference in the two treaties was that the ‘strategic content’ of Indo-Soviet Treaty contained in its Art.9 was missing and the word "peace" was soaked. In 1994 the Declaration on Further Development and Intensification of Cooperation between the Republic of India and the Russian Federation was signed. It didn’t have the biding force but it was reflecting some going crystallization of common geopolitical interests.
However, after a period of uncertainty "the convergence or confluence of basic geopolitical interests that lay at the base of decade-long uninterrupted friendship between India and the Soviet Union have been again working for the restoration and expansion of the ties between India and Russia".2 It's true that countries have much in common - they are democracies with multi-ethic and multi-linguistic population but don’t share borders so they don’t figure each other as threat. There is no basic antagonism in their perspective of world view. Both favour multipolar world order and believe in UN as the most reliable power in solving international conflicts. Also Russia as no one else can understand India’s problem with Kashmir as it is itself involved in the likewise unresolved conflict with Chechnya. One more important factor that made Russia realize the high priority of its relations with India as a partner was no expected results of Russian flirtation with the west coming. It became obvious after crisis of 1998.
Visit of Kozyrev successor, Russian Foreign Minister Primakov (East orientate politician) in 1998 also played a significant role in revitalizing relations between two countries as it was paid just several months after Indian nuclear tests (Pokhran II) which were much condemned by international global community. Even though Russia officially joined the chorus of deep dissatisfaction and was calling India to adhere to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), it ensured India that test and their sequel would not affect its long-term strategic relations which just started to be rebuilt after years of uncertainty. Primakov showed that Russia became able to reject US pressure on its cooperation with India in military, nuclear and space fields. While visiting India Russian Foreign Minister showed total understanding of India’s concern on arms selling to Pakistan and was very clear on Kashmir issue. During Primakov's visit the 7RCR-Kremlin Hot-line with a telephonic conversation with President Yeltsin on 13 April 1998 was inaugurated3 to hold more productive discussions on global political issues and regional concerns. This fact emphasized the growing importance of relationships between two countries.
On the whole by the year 2000 when Putin came to power some basic restoration of relations was made. Yet Putin brought considerable cheer to the Indo-Russian relations as well as a measure of order and stability. His visit to India was one of the first visits abroad. During his visit in 2000 he stated that his country’s relations with India were among the top priorities of its foreign policy and beyond any doubt a matter of national consensus in Russia.
The major issue in Indo-Russian relations has always been arms trade so this sphere was the first one to be revitalized as the most developed field of cooperation since Indo-Soviet relations. After USSR collapsed both countries still were interested to keep and develop relationships in arms trade for several reasons. First, for Russia India was still the biggest arms market (two others buyers of Russian weapons were only China and Iran). Second, Russia needed to earn hard currency and safeguard its military industry (even now India buys more hardware from Russian defense industry than Russian own military force). Meanwhile, for India Russia was vital to upgrade soviet weapons arsenal which was 70-80% Soviet-Russian and modernize it. Russian arms were and still remain cheaper than the western ones. Then Russian hardware was also familiar to personnel. Furthermore, one of the most important factors was Russian readiness to transfer technology which western countries refused to do.
Thus, even in Yeltsin-Kozyrev times India and Russia started to look for not just buyer-seller relationship of arms but "joint development of technologies and systems and marketing them abroad under the Long-term Integrated Military Technical Cooperation Agreement of 1994"4. Initially meant for six years, this deal was extended in 1998 to 2010. Renewed defense cooperation covered the full spectrum - from Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier to the development and production of the cruise missile BrahMos. Indian Navy also shows much interest in Russian products. As a senior Russian diplomat put it "the teeth of the Indian Navy will continue to be Russian". 5
The fact that the military cooperation is now going beyond just arms sells can be proven by joint Naval Exercises in the Arabian Sea which were held in May-June, 2003.6 During last visit the stability in military trade was once more reassured. Now military trade with India is 39% from total sales of arms. The newly signed contracts are estimated in $ 5 billions. India continues its deal of purchasing more than 300 T-90S main battle tanks (MBT) with anti-tank guided missiles. Another contract enabled India to get Sukhoi Su -30 fighter aircraft under license from Russia. Also during the latest visit of Putin the question of intellectual property in military and technical sphere was discussed which one more time demonstrated the new level of communication and cooperation between two countries in this sphere. The decision was made that the issue should be resolved in following 4 months period starting from January 2005.
As we see India and Russia have moved forward from just import of weapon systems/license production paradigm to joint projects (in case of BrahMos supersonic anti-ship missile both sides have 50 per cent stake).
However, the situation is still not very stable. There is some concern from Indian side regarding too much dependence on Russian weapons and a desire to try to get less attached was articulated. Then the price of Russian weapons starts to grow as Russian's military-industrial complex still can't fund the development of new weapons and asks India to provide the money. This makes the cost less attractive as well as weapons less competitive with European ones. At the same time there is not too much confidence from Indian side in Russia's commitment not to sell any arms to Pakistan. Moreover, Russia showed quick shift from the position of not selling the same arms to China as it sells to India.
The next important point of Indo-Russian relations convergence is cooperation in nuclear field. "In the mid-1990s, Russia revived the idea of Kudankulam nuclear project. Likewise, since Putin’s visit in 2000, Moscow renewed its interest in helping New Delhi boost its civilian atomic energy programme".7 Now India doesn’t have much choice as negotiations with France (a quite desirable partner) didn’t bring immediate results. "The reality is that Russia today is the only power which is ready to cooperate with India in the atomic energy sector". 8 Russia is still not very predictable due to international, mainly, US pressure. In 2000 there were two memorandums signed - the Memorandum of Understanding on Peaceful Nuclear Energy and Declaration on Strategic Partnership but only latter was made public. Russia is concerned to act in the framework of nuclear export mechanism - the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). It restrained itself by the Federal Law "On export Control" adopted in 1999 and also by organizing the Export Control Commission which was supposed to check compatibility of Russian bilateral and multilateral contracts with country's international commitments. Putin made a serious step to facilitate the situation by amending Russian export control legislation. But even with support of France on the question of legitimate transfer of nuclear supplies to India as a subject of possibly relaxed restrictions, Russia had to inform New Delhi "to find a way of getting the Americans on board".9
At the same time even being criticized by the West Russia came to rescue India when China cut supplies of enriched uranium fuel to Tarapur. Moreover, Putin was the first leader to visit Bhabha Atomic Research center (BARC) after nuclear tests.
The latest Head of Russian MinAtom, A.Rumyantsev has been very clear in his wish to cooperate with India on nuclear issues. "India is our strategic partner. We want to ensure that there are no reproaches (from the international community) in this regard".10 He confirmed that Russia was still intending to continue assisting in building nuclear power station despite international concern saying that "We will do our best to participate in India's ambitious program to generate 20,000 MW of nuclear power by 2020". 11 There are also speculations about Russia helping India in constructing a nuclear reactor for its nuclear submarine and "supplying India with 300-kilometre range Klub class cruise missiles that can be launched under water".12
At the same time as Deepa Ollapally - the author of the article "Indo-Russian Strategic Relations: New Choices and Constrains" states: "It is no secret that India would prefer to get nuclear assistance form France or even US…" India also hasn’t forgotten the backtracking on cryogenic engine technology contract. So even though Indo-Russian nuclear program seems to have support on the highest level there is no actual guarantee the cooperation can last for a long time.
Another recently developing field of cooperation is space programme. During his last visit Putin emphasized the importance of the agreements made in this sphere. The partnership will include launching of Russian satellites on India launchers and creation of a new generation of navigation satellites through the GLONASS system. This agreement was preceded by Memorandum of Understanding between Indian Space Research organization (ISRO) and Russian Aviation and Space Agency (Rosaviakosmos) on cooperation in Exploration and Use of Outer Space for peaceful Purposes signed in 2003 during the visit of Prime Minster of India to Russia.13
The cooperation in the field of science and culture seems to be moving in positive direction. There have been many agreements and memorandums signed during the last decade. They include basically collaboration in science and computer technologies even though Indian and Russian firms can see each other more as rivals than partners (Russian companies also sell their software and scientific knowledge to the West). In 2000 HRM inaugurated the Russian-Indian Center for Advanced Computing Research at the institute for Computer Aided Design (ICAD) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, with the installation of the PARAM 1000 Super Computer. Also a memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in Science and Technology between the Department of Science and Technology and the Kurchatov Center for Nuclear Physics was signed in 2000. During the visit of Indian Prime Minister to Russia in 2003 a Protocol on Scientific Cooperation between the Department of Science and Technology of the Government of the Republic of India and the Russian Academy of Sciences was signed.
In the same year Memorandum of Understanding for the Continuance of Mahatma Gandhi Chair of Indian Philosophy in Moscow as well as creating three more chairs of Indian studies in the Russian cities of St.Petersburg, Vladivostok and Kazan was signed. Also the Cooperation Agreement between the Moscow State Institute of International Relations and the Indian Council of World Affairs was made.
Being a postgraduate student of the Mahatma Gandhi Chair of Indian Philosophy in Russian Academy of Sciences i would like to testify that a lot of work towards strengthening the bilateral relations on this level is being done there. Exchange programme between professors as well as students has been started recently. At the same time i would like to mention that i was very much surprised by position of total ignorance taken by Russian Cultural Center stated in Mumbai in bringing two cultures together. I strongly believe that any contribution to communication on personal level has much impact on developing relations between two countries. Nevertheless the fact that Days of Russian Culture were held in Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata in 2003 can't be neglected.
Trade remains the weakest link in Indo-Russian relations. During Soviet times India was one of the main trade partners but after collapse of Soviet Union the trade decreased on the very high pace - from $5,5 billions in 1989 to $1.5 billions and stagnated at this point. Indian top leaders showed their concern by this fact and were making steps for improving the situation. For example during his latest visit to Russia (in 2003) PM of India was accompanied by a delegation of more than ninety top industrialists and businesspersons. This event "provided the necessary high level thrust to the round-the-year efforts such as revival of joint Business Council, encouraging more frequent business exchanges, establishing necessary banking and financial structure to facilitate bilateral trade and investment…"14
Putin also pays much attention to the problem of actually trade stagnation between two countries. In his speech (Bangalore, 2004, 4th of December) addressed to business elite of India he said that bilateral trade reached level of $2 billions. He emphasized though that in absolute values this figure was still very far away from satisfactory especially if the fact that it was mostly raw materials’ trade was taken into consideration. Putin also promised to try to balance the arms and civil trade and was saying that now to his deep satisfaction Russia and India started to cooperate more in such sectors as IT, transport, energy, roads building and other spheres of non-military trade. Russian president underlined importance of so-called North-South Corridor Intergovernmental Agreement which was signed between India and Russian Federation in 2000. "The agreement is expected to facilitate easer movement of goods along the corridor connecting India through the sea route to Iran and then via the Caspian Sea to the Russian Federation and beyond. This initiative is also likely to reduce transit time and cost of transportation of goods from India to the Russian Federation and European Countries".15 Putin was welcoming Indian business elite to take advantages of opportunities opened by this agreement.
It is important to say that there are already some high-prolific projects going on like Indian (ONGC) investment of $1.7 billion in the Sakhalin oil field in Siberia (It's interesting in comparison to China which concluded $12 billion investment in energy projects in Siberia in exchange for long term assured access to energy). Also the exploration and development of offshore gas deposits in the Bay of Bengal with participation of Gazprom should be mentioned as a sign of some positive development. Both countries believe that there should be more forces put in investment projects than pure trade. In 2002 the two sides began to "explore the possibility of using Indian debt repayments to fund Russian investments in India…"16
There are still lots of obstacles to development of trade between private sectors. First, Indian goods in a situation of global market need to compete with other goods but their reputation was spoilt during the time of early 1990s when under the rupee-ruble trade substandard products were brought to Russian market. Second, even though on official level Russia was proclaimed by India to be the country with free market economy Indian businessmen see Russia as a country of "criminal capitalism" while Russian counterparts see India as a "bureaucrat-dominated nightmare". Putin admitted that there was a urgent necessity of improving business environment and destroying the barriers, especially facilitating the visa issuing procedure. The agreements on special rules for holders of diplomatic and service passports were made. Moreover administration of St.Petersburg and Mumbai discussed in details special protocols which can make the zones of these two major cities free from restrains in trade and commerce. Also several memorandums and agreements were signed between Russian and Indian banks (Sberbank, Vneshekonombank, RosEksimBank, Canara bank, State Bank of India).
Joint Council created by the Russian Chamber of Commerce and FICCI continues to play a serious role in renewing trade activities after years of tremendous havoc. We should keep in mind that straightening of economic relations between two countries are of the special importance now due to the fact that economy is Russian "priority one, two and three" in so called "Putin doctrine".
Special place in trade relations is taken by such products like oil and gas mainly because of its’ political meaning. There are several projects of oil-gas pipeline from the Caspian region/Turkmenistan through Iran/Afghanistan and Pakistan to India. In his report to parliament on the 21st of December, 2004 PM of India M. Singh said that he discussed this project with Pakistan and they both found it as very beneficial. There are for sure some obvious long and short-term benefits of such a project but a lot of political issues are involved which bring these issues from bilateral to the regional level.
On the regional level Russia and India mostly share the major interests as they both look for opportunities to monitor and control terrorist organizations with their ties to Islamic extremism. As J.N.Dixit said while analyzing the character of Indo-Russian relations "The joint orientations towards significant international issues have found _expression in the declaration on Strategic Partnership signed between the two countries in the year 2000 during President Putin’s visit to India’ . In 2002 a further Memorandum of Understanding was signed creating a joint Indo-Russian working group on dealing with global challenges.
Both India and Russia see terrorism and narcotics-trafficking as one of the major threats for national security but it should be emphasized that now they share different views on Pakistan: India sees it as a part of opposite camp while Russia considers Pakistan to be the one to play an important role containing terrorism especially after September, 11 and US special actions towards Pakistan. Moscow even set up a joint working group on terrorism with Pakistan before it did with India. At the same time Russian oil companies (some of them still privatized) started to look for opportunities worldwide and begun to explore expanded energy cooperation with Pakistan which creates some tension in Indo-Russian relations.
On the whole it is very important to see and be able to evaluate Indo-Russian relations in a context of modern world consisting of one super power (USA) and several great powers (like United Europe, China and countries of our particular interest as well) vs the rest of the world. It's a very complicated topic as many factors - overt and covert should be taken into consideration and in the frame of this paper it would be described just briefly. Both countries pay much attention to officially present their strategic partnership as not oriented against any third country. Both look for good relations with world leader - the USA. However Russia still has in mind the possibility to use its close relations with India as leverage in its relations with US as well as China while India still sees Russia as a good partner to contain China even though the Sino-Russian bilateral relations are being built on a very high pace.
In 1998 Primakov announced the idea of Indo-Chinese-Russian axis as the possible alliance to balance US in a unipolar world which actually first came into being during 1992-1993 when he was the head of Russian Intelligence Service. This alliance occurs to be "more like a lead balloon" as how i already just said countries now look more for closer relations with US and are also favouring bilateral relations. "India may opt to not join any tacit or explicit grouping such as that proposed by Primakov, but rather learn the fine art of balancing in the more fluid strategic environment it faces. It would work best if, under dire circumstances, India could count on an ultimate powerful ally, but there is no evidence to indicate that Russia would or could play this role".17 Also a lot of critics of the idea of Indo-Chinese Russian axis due to the fact of India not being a member in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (which was created in 1996 by Russia, China and three bordering countries - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and expanded to include security and economic issues) as well as Collective Security Treaty Organization. However according to the latest news (The Asian Age, 11, March 2005) India has been invited to take part in Shanghai Cooperation Organization. As stated in The Agian Age "Russia has taken the lead in persuading the members to allow Indian representatives at the meeting which could eventually lead to full membership of the fairly prestigious body at a later stage". So this can be a sign of redesigning of geopolitical situation in Asia region which can bring significant changes to world politics.
At the end after taking quite a brief look at stabilization and further development of Indo-Russian relations during the recent decade we can conclude that there is a mutual desire to become closer which is permanently shown on the upper level. Both countries look for partnership - not only a military but also economic and political one. They both support each other on international level and their interests coincide in facing global war on terrorism - one of the main issues of global agenda. Moreover, India upholds Russia entering WTO while Russia promotes India’s permanent membership in UN. There are still many obstacles at all the levels of possible cooperation (bilateral, regional and global) but the leaders show will to overcome them and continue to look for new spheres of collaboration especially in a sphere of economics.
LITERATURE:
1. Dr. Jyotsna Bakshi RUSSIA AND INDIA: From Ideology to Geopolitics, Dev Publication, Delhi, 1999.
2. C. Raja Mohan CROSSING THE RUBICON: The Shaping of India’s New Foreign Policy, Viking, Penguin books, India, 2003.
3. INDIA AS AN EMERGING POWER, Editor Sumit Ganguly, article "Indo-Russian Strategic Relations: New Choices and Constrains" by Deepa Ollapally, Frank Cass, London, Portland, Or, 2003.
4. Materials from Annual Reports of Indian Embassy, Washington, D.C.
5. The Asian Age
6. Indian Express (internet version)
7. Hindustan Times (internet version)
8. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (internet resource)
9. Materials from WWW - Russian News Portal - www.rambler.ru
Deepa Ollapally, p.136 1
2 Dr. Jyotsna Bakshi, p.284
3 Annual report, 1998-1999, section 2
4 C. Raja Mohan, p.128
5 Deepa Ollapally, p. 144
6 Annual report 2003-2004
7 C. Raja Mohan, p.131
8 C. Raja Mohan, p.145
9 C. Raja Mohan, p.131
10 Deepa Ollapally, p.148
11 Deepa Ollapally, p.147
12 C. Raja Mohan, p.132
13 Annual report 2003-2004
14 Annual report 2003-2004
15 Annual report 2000-2001
16 C. Raja Mohan, p.140
17 Deepa Ollapally, p.154
